Monitoring the Changes in the Red Zone

In 2011 the world has witnessed some unpredictable changes due to the collapse of regimes that for years have maintained their people under the hammer and oppression to deliberately put them under submission while the elite and selected families in power enjoyed lavish lifestyles for many decades.
As President John F. Kennedy said, “change is the law of life and those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” Hopefully this may alert the intelligence community and disregard any comfortable or misleading believe that the red zone will change for good. The monitoring must prevail in observance for the characteristics of each individual transition of power like in Tunisia, the most modern and European-like lifestyle nation in North Africa where the people could not take more abuse from the 23 years in power of President Ben Ali, in Egypt where President Hosni Mubarak had no other choice but to step down from the golden chair he sat for 30 years, in Libya where President Muamar Q’adhafi ruled for 42 years, and currently happening in Yemen where after 33 years of ruling tens of thousands of protesters denounced the promise of immunity from prosecution given to President Saleh while intending to transfer the power to his vice-president. We cannot miss the future and what the future has for the world peace without these cancerous leaders of oppression, abuse and dictatorship.
The influence of Islamic organizations is not going to stop to deter any Western model of government to interrupt the religious beliefs in the region. The American intelligence community must pay close attention and understand that the Islamic support to Al Q’aeda in the Arabian Peninsula will continue regardless of who is in power. Similar struggles from the people under a totalitarian regime is happening also in Syria, where the regime of Basahr al-Assad is under the microscope of the Arab League due to his lack of cooperation to allow observers in Damascus, the capital, to pull forces from different cities as the nation experiences economic sanctions at the same time. New faces will come and new abuses will persist; the new leaders will welcome international eyes to make them believe of a new start and fresh agenda for the well being of their masses, however the adherence to Islamic doctrine and mandates cannot change and will not change. The Western hemisphere will continue to be the target of attacks as well as its own interests around the world.
The American intelligence community should expect a very busy 2012 with the existence of a radical Islamic nation of Iran that will remain strong in defeating the United States, and that no agreements or productive relationships can be reached as long as we stand by the state of Israel. A new sleeping-lion observes our drowning in economic power, which China is ready to awake and intelligently step on our toes to crumble our financial institutions; North Korea will continue to express their ambition for nuclear superiority, while India will continue to generate income at a high speed rates. We always tend to believe that Pakistan was our allied and some politicians will continue to think the same even though some of them will never recognize they were wrong; Pakistan has always been a key piece in Al Q’aeda movements and production of terrorist in hidden training camps. Osama bin Laden found refuge in Pakistan and died in it. Immediate HUMINT and SIGINT operations are needed in the border with Mexico, which has lately become a funnel for people from the Middle East, something that never was known or never happened. Our borders are critical as well as our ports; strengthening the security in our ports of entry cannot be limited to closing only our doors but our windows as well. Border patrol in the southern part of the country is not near 100% effective and terrorist organizations are aware of it and they count with the support of drug cartels in the region.
The hammering and oppression of people by dictatorships may take a slightly turn in years to come as new governments make take a more modern approach to conduct business to their favor. However, the threat to the United States will persist until the end of days; we just need to be one step ahead and not be blinded by any upcoming changes or new peace treaties signed, which in the red zone mean nothing. Our borders need to be secured and training and quality of personnel should be first priority instead of creating new departments and filling it with bodies to presume effectiveness. Getting our law enforcement agencies involved in the collection of intelligence information from the streets in regard to suspicious elements or activities that may lead to terrorist business is imperative. Law enforcement are already on the streets of America, they just need to be trained in how to operate, observe, and collect certain data without making them a terrorism experts. We need to utilize our resources more effectively because the threat will affect America. We have a critical agenda to cover next year; we do not have the time to look at the past or present; we must concentrate in the future.

Iran: The Primary Threat

Nearly thirty years after the 1979 revolution, Iran remains the State Department’s most active and latent state sponsor of terrorism. Iran’s firm and non-negotiable position to oppose Israel’s existence continues to enrich its label as the primary threat to the region and to world peace. The ambition for proliferation of nuclear capabilities that goes beyond energy use but to nuclear armament superiority is developing a sense of uncertainty in the region. The United States and its allies cannot shut down the conversations with the regime of Mahmoud Ahmedinejed in regard to pushing for internal inspections by independent sources with the authority and knowledge to evaluate the possible threat. The trick is to know how to talk to a regime that opposes feverously to the State of Israel in search for answers and cooperation through the inspection. No other American administration has made severe efforts to counter Iranian regional influence and weaken its government than President George W. Bush’s government. The period of the Obama administration has been the moment needed by the Iranian government to recoup the strength needed to remain as a global threat.
Immediate conversations must take place and effective responses should be the result of these conversations to ensure effective communication. The Islamic Republic is not on the verge of collapse and no internal revolution will take place. The nation is concise and strongly tied to Islamic principles that any abrupt political upheaval or military intervention could generate even worse results. Political strategists must identify if the Iranian policies and position is because the way the West behaves towards Iran or it simply is the way they do business with nations that support and stand by the State of Israel. After the identification of policy basics, the research of negotiation alternatives must take place with strong consideration of economic sanctions and strong, imminent, and consistent pressure to allow independent nuclear committee to evaluate every site, every corner, and every plan of the Iranian nuclear proliferation. Unfortunately, this will not be done during the current administration of Barak Hussein Obama, who has shown poor interest to this massive threat to the region, little concern about the future of the sovereignty of the State of Israel, and no interest or knowledge in regard to the continuous support from the Iranian government to terrorist organizations in the region.
The United Nations’ nuclear chief, Yukiya Amano has made public a report indicating that Iran is trying to develop nuclear technologies for arms, something that the government of Ahmedinejed has denied and labeled as political-motivated conspiracy with Washington. Members of the Iranian government and nuclear department have rejected any intervention of any organization directed to evaluate their nuclear potential and inventory. The Iranian people is not ready for a change as it was demonstrated in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen; the Iranian government shut all talks when it comes to the State of Israel, its recognition, acceptance, and respect as a legally established nation; the Iranian government feeds constantly the evil veins of the terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, which are the cancer that spreads and threats the stabilization of nations and peace in the region.
In the eyes of the Iranian regime, there is a clear and real believe that Washington sought to install a pro-American puppet government in Iraq, protected by US troops for many years along with the dissemination of democratic and Western ideologies to be sympathetic to Israel and hostile to Iran, something that the Iranians also believe is happening with the government of Karzai in Afghanistan but they will not look back or sideways, they are committed to their evil doctrine that has the foundations of radical Islam, which translates into just one word: Terrorism.
Then, what are the options if all the doors for diplomatic talks are closed? What are the options to evaluate the proliferation of nuclear technologies in the country if the Iranian government does not welcome any organization to do so? What are the options if atomic research goes on between all five daily prayers? The answer is narrowing down to military intervention.